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Showing posts with label Stock Market Opinion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stock Market Opinion. Show all posts

Morgan Stanley & GS forecast lower World GDP ahead

Thursday, August 18, 2011 Comments


For the first time today, I am beginning to feel a little concerned about the stock market crash of the past 1 month. I am generally an eternal optimist about equities. In my previous post, I hinted about how attractive, valuations have become in the Indian stock markets and how this could be a great investing opportunity for folks at large. My view was that a lot of the stock market carnage of the past month was due to negative sentiments triggered off by the S&P downgrade of the US. It was my belief that we could fast be approaching a stock market bottom around the 4,700 NIFTY levels as the effect of the negative sentiments would not last too long. Given that Greece was bailed out, the latest US job numbers along with the latest Indian IIP numbers, all suggested that the global economic fundamentals are intact. Infact, I was also a critic of the double dip theory.

However, today 2 leading global names that I respect came up with revised global GDP numbers. This has rattled me a little. Morgan Stanley has cut its global GDP forecast to 3.9% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012, down from 4.2% and 4.5%, respectively.  What is important to note here is that the original forecast was 4.2% in 2011 and it was further increasing to 4.5% in 2012(which meant next year would be better than this year). However, now the GDP number has not only been cut in 2011, the trend(GDP growth rate) is likely to further worsen in 2012(which means next year is likely to be even worse!!). Furthermore, even Goldman Sachs has cut its global GDP forecast for 2011 to 4.0% from 4.1%.

US default and its implications

Sunday, July 31, 2011 Comments


There has been a lot of news about the US debt ceiling and the economic chaos that has been prevailing in the world’s most powerful nation. Would you believe it? They are on the brink of a default. Come August 2nd , the US government may not have funds in its coffers to meet its spending obligations. Today my wife asked me a rather innocent but valid question – “If they don’t have money to pay their bills, why don’t they just print some dollars and pay using those dollars?”

Well, I thought that I should pen down some thoughts on this critical issue which is threatening to pull the American economy back into recession.  To begin with, let’s understand some basic concepts that govern the issue at hand. First of all, its important to understand that printing of money in any country is controlled by that country’s Central Bank. Eg. It’s the RBI in India and the Fed in the US. The Central bank has a critical role to play. If they print a lot of money or leave interest rates very low, that would drive up liquidity leading to high inflation. If they do the reverse, inflation might be low but there won’t be enough capital to do business in the country, hence the GDP will go down leading to poorer lifestyles of the masses. Hence, these Central banks have an important role to play as they decide liquidity flow in the country. They act independently and are supposedly run by very competent economists.

The government of a country is like a large organization that spends money for the upliftment of   its people. This money comes either through taxes or by raising debt by issuing bonds. Government spending is very important as it leads to large scale creation of jobs for the masses and also helps people attain better lifestyles. Sometimes, a situation arises when the government runs out of money and in order to meet its spending obligations needs to either raise taxes (which is a politically suicidal move) or raise money through debt. As long as the debt remains within certain limits, borrowing can be a good idea. However, if the debt reaches dangerously high limits, raising more funds through debt can only create a fiscal deficit time bomb waiting to explode.

Impact of Interest Rates on the Stock Market

Tuesday, July 26, 2011 Comments


There was carnage in the market today. The BSE Sensex fell by over 350 points. In many ways, what happened today was a lot like what has been happening on the day of Infosys results in the past few quarters. The culprit for all the action was the 50 basis point hike in repo rate and reverse-repo rate by the RBI. A rate hike per se was already expected. Infact, a survey of market investors and experts conducted over past 2 days showed that over 80% expected a rate hike. Then why did the market fall so violently.

First of all, we must understand the significance of rate hikes on the market.  Interest rates determine the amount of liquidity flow in a country. The lower the interest rate, the easier it is to borrow. When it is easier to borrow, the supply of money in the market increases which tends to drive up prices, leading to higher inflation. Hence, though reduction of interest rates helps business, it negatively affects inflation. Inflation is a huge enemy for any country. As inflation rises, common people are impacted and it also endangers the value of currency. There have been several instances of hyperinflation suffered by many countries in the last century which have created huge systemic damage. Hence, it is critical to keep inflation in check.

Investing in a Range-Bound Stock Market

Friday, July 15, 2011 Comments

These are tough times for any stock market investor. The market seems to be moving around aimlessly. It is very difficult these days to take any directional calls. The NIFTY is moving around in a broad range of 5,200 to 5,800 and toughest part is no one seems to be able to say with conviction whether it will break the lower end or the upper end of this band. There are some ‘bears’ who are beginning to raise alarm bells about the European sovereign debt crisis and the potential American double dip. If that were to happen, we could head back towards 4,000 levels on the NIFTY which could be a correction of 25-30%. Then there are the bulls who say that the markets have been listless and flat for way too long now. With the Diwali season approaching and also potential QE3 in the US, money would start to flow back into the Stock markets and they could start heading up.  It is these times that test the most seasoned of investors.  

Today, I wanted to dwell upon what I think should be our approach in such range-bound markets. I have mentioned in one of my earlier posts that timing a stock market entry or exit is the toughest decision to make in a market. Stock markets become relatively easy to navigate during bull runs or bear runs. In bull runs, people start buying all sorts of stocks. Stocks that have never been traded before and other penny stocks also become active and what’s more, people even start to make money on these stocks. Similarly in secular bear runs, one can make money by going short in futures or buying Put Options.

Impact of Greece and PIIGS on the Indian Stock Market

Wednesday, July 13, 2011 Comments


European PIIGS 

For the last few months, we have been hearing that Stock Markets across the globe are being held back by some problems in the Greece economy. As an investor in Indian stock markets one might ask, "How on earth does a problem in a smallish country somewhere in Europe affect us in India? We seem to be doing alright. Why should our stock market even react to this issue?"

Well, whether we like it or not, we are indeed impacted through a logical economic sequence which is what I intend to dwell upon today. First of all, we need to understand the concept of ‘Sovereign Debt’. When a government is in need of funds to finance its spend, it often borrows money from its public by issuing bonds to them. These bonds are called ‘Government Bonds’ and the government returns this money with interest over a stipulated time period. In the same way, governments often issue bonds in international currency to borrow from other countries. These bonds are called ‘Sovereign Bonds’ and this sovereign debt too needs to be repaid by the government. As long as the GDP of a country is healthy, the government is able to repay its sovereign debt. But sometimes this debt builds on a country and brings it to the brink of sovereign default.

Greece is in a miserable situation as its sovereign debt is 150% of its GDP. There is no doubt that it is going to default at some stage. Last year, the European Union and IMF came to its rescue by offering a bailout package to temporarily plug the crisis. Apart from Greece, other weaker nations in the Euro Zone – Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain have also been showing sovereign defaulting tendencies. These 5 nations(commonly known as PIIGS) along with the US and Japan to a lesser extent are all facing immense sovereign debt pressures.

What’s it about Infy results??

Tuesday, July 12, 2011 Comments


I am a proud ex-Infoscion and still hold a reasonable chunk of Infosys shares acquired through ESOPs that were generously doled out to me while I was at Infy. However, in the stock market world, I have seen year after year that Infosys quarterly financial results seem to be one of the most awaited events in the year, probably falling second only to the Indian National Budget. I was just glancing through some news portals like moneycontrol.com (which is my favorite for stock market tracking). Today, on its ‘Markets’ Homepage, 5 out of the 14 top stories of the day revolve around the impending Infosys results on July 12th ie. tomorrow. There are experts commenting upon their expectations from Infosys, you have commentary on whether Infosys will beat TCS in its results this time around…..it goes on.

Even a day before the results, the markets today were jittery. The entire IT pack fell, thereby making the entire sentiment nervous leading to a general sell-off. The Sensex was down and market breadth was negative with advance – decline ratio being 1:2.